SEMI’s Industry Strategy Symposium (ISS) is always a great way to kick off the new year, and this year was no exception. I liked the perhaps inevitable comparison to the Roaring Twenties: “I’m pretty sure that 100 years ago it felt like anything was possible,” said ARM’s CEO Simon Segars, noting how it was a period of huge economic growth and modernization, including major advances in electricity, cars, airplanes, cameras and telephones.
Jody Kelman, director of product management, self-driving, Lyft went back a bit further, showing a picture of New York’s busy 5th Ave in 1900, where all the “vehicles” were horse-drawn carriages – with one exception, a Henry Ford Model T. A similar picture in 1913 showed the exact opposite: a sea of Model Ts and only one horse-and-buggy. “America underwent nothing short of a transportation revolution. For the same price as a horse and buggy, you could buy this really cool state-of-the-art car,” Kelman said.
Her point was that we are in a new age of innovation when it comes to mobility and transportation, noting that it’s now possible to order a self-driving Lyft car in a Las Vegas test program. Other speakers shared the same sense of optimism: I summarized five of the talks that I found most interesting:
Bob Johnson, vice president, Gartner, who talked about the challenges ahead in the semiconductor market.
Handel Jones, CEO, International Business Strategies (IBS), who spoke on the opportunities and threats in the China market.
Shawn DuBravac, CEO, Avrio Institute, who gave his insights on major trends in consumer electronics, with specific examples from the recent Consumer Electronics Show (CES).
Ken Washington, CTO, Ford Motor Company, who described a vision for cars of the future and their requirements when it comes to connectivity and compute power, and
Marco Pieters, Vice President, EUV Product Marketing, ASML, who provided a status report on EUV’s acceptance in high volume manufacturing and an update on progress toward the company’s next-gen high NA tool.
The general consensus was that 5G will have a significant positive impact on growth in the coming years, the semiconductor market will continue to grow, reaching $1 Trillion by 2030, and AI will have a major impact on virtually every aspect of society, spurred on by future innovations.
Dave Anderson, President, SEMI Americas, spoke about what’s happened in the last 50 years: SEMI is celebrating a 50th anniversary this year so expect to hear a lot more about that as we approach Semicon West.
With seemingly most people glued to their smartphones every waking moment, it’s easy to question what electronics have done to us a society, but Anderson pointed out how “semiconductors are at the heart of nearly everything and the world’s quality of life has never been better.” Global adult literacy has increased to its highest point in history. Infant mortality is the lowest it has ever been. Last year, fewer people suffered from incapacitating diseases than at any time in history. “Because of what we enable, the vast majority of kids alive today will live to see the next turn of the century. Can you think of a greater victory for mankind during our time here?,” Anderson asked.
What’s difficult to predict, of course, is the innovation that has yet to happen. This is particularly true in AI: It’s poised to impact virtually every aspect of society, but exactly how it will evolve is unknown. Shorter term, 5G is expected to have a significant, positive impact, yet exactly how it will roll out and how widely adopted has yet to be seen.
What is clear is that the cycles of innovation are happening faster than ever. “With today’s rapid adoption of 5G, AI, VR, quantum computers and other new technologies, change has never been this fast and it will never be this slow again,” Anderson said. “The ’20s are going to be astonishing.” I’m on board with that!