TECHCET— the electronic materials advisory firm providing business and technology information — is forecasting total semiconductor revenues in 2024 to increase by nearly 12%, hitting $610B. The excitement around this forecast is dampened by the fact that 2024 revenues fall short of 2021 by >$40B. However, looking into the future, 2025 is forecasted to be a gangbuster year with 27% growth, smashing the previous revenue record. The main indicator for the 2025 upshoot is past cyclical history in the market.
Semiconductor materials revenues have increased over Q1 2023 albeit slowly. Materials suppliers report that sales from both the leading edge logic and memory sector are improving, with the exception of wafers. Excess inventory held by chip makers was still being burned off over Q1 and the wafer market is lagging other material segments in shipment growth.
Chip revenues are heavily influenced by memory ASPs and fab utilization improvements in memory and logic segments. Leading edge foundry ASPs and “sold-out” conditions on HBM are also contributing to growth this year.
