New data from Supplyframe paints a grim picture of current and expected conditions in the electronics supply chain, where commodity supply tightness and cost inflation are impacting most inputs across categories. Continuing category challenges at the beginning of this quarter suggest that there will only be pockets of relief through the remainder of 2022 and into 2023 for many commodities.
This includes shortages of resin feedstocks and additives, increasing costs for fuels and metals, and challenges related to the affordability and availability of labor and freight capacity.
“Geopolitical uncertainty and wide-ranging impacts from the Russian invasion of Ukraine, persistent global inflation and recurring COVID-19 outbreaks continue to wreak havoc and test beleaguered industry supply chains,” said Supplyframe CEO and founder Steve Flagg.
There’s No Relief in Sight for the Second Quarter
The second quarter began with nearly half of all Supplyframe Commodity IQ dimensions worsening. And the number of pricing indicators in the red grew 16% quarter-on-quarter.
Things are not expected to improve as the quarter progresses. Commodity IQ expects 85% of all pricing dimensions to increase and 83% of all lead time dimensions to extend this quarter.
“Sustained COVID-19 eruptions in two-thirds of Chinese provinces and elsewhere in Asia are prompting government-mandated shutdowns and strict containment protocols — creating further labor limitations, straining supply and introducing new supply chain disruptions,” said Richard Barnett, chief marketing officer and SaaS sales leader at Supplyframe.
Supply Chain Challenges Will Continue Into 2023
The electronics supply chain can expect growing challenges into next year. Through the first quarter of 2023, more than 70% of lead times are forecast to increase. During that time frame, analog, complex semiconductor (ASICs, MCUs, MPUs, PLDs), flash memory, non-ceramic capacitor, resistor and standard logic devices are forecast to rise in price with very limited exceptions. Most of the same devices will also remain at or exceed already elevated lead times.
One category that remains particularly stubborn and hostile is the active components market. From analog power to standard logic to ASICs and sensors, this space will be swimming in a sea of red indicators for the next four quarters. This is happening as strong demand continues, production is at capacity, there are extended lead times and rising prices plague most devices.
Passive components are not as constrained as active ones. However, like active components, passive commodities also suffer from raw material challenges and labor shortages.
But New Forms of Intelligence Can Help Manage Risk
Commodity IQ, which is powered by Supplyframe’s Design-to-Source Intelligence (DSI) Solutions, uses a unique combination of analytics and analysis to provide actionable intelligence for electronics industry practitioners. It is underpinned by commodity sourcing experts at more than 350 Supplyframe DSI Network Partners managing more than $140 billion of direct material spending and by the powerful analytics generated by more than 10 million sourcing professionals and electronics engineers. And, to help companies enhance their end-to-end supply chain risk mitigation and opportunity identification in these troubling and complex times, Supplyframe this quarter announced new Commodity IQ intelligence aspects.
Supplyframe has partnered with MetalMiner, whose MetalMiner Insights platform provides unique metal market price intelligence. Commodity IQ now includes MetalMiner’s monthly pricing, forward-looking analysis and pricing forecasts for essential and precious metals.
Additionally, Supplyframe is introducing banded, at-volume lead times across the electronics component commodities analyzed in Commodity IQ. Based on large-scale quotations of thousands of manufacturer part numbers (MPNs) across millions of data points, these lead-time trends express percentages of MPNs in each range of factory lead times quotes and will be updated quarterly. In yet another enhancement to its offering, Supplyframe is now presenting the design and demand indicators in Commodity IQ monthly with three-month forecasts.
“The electronics supply chain continues to face new and unprecedented challenges,” said Flagg. “But leveraging new forms of intelligence can help these companies better understand and manage risk, build resiliency into their new product designs and expand their opportunities.”