Investments in new fab projects starting construction in 2020 is expected to reach nearly US$50 billion, up about US$12 billion from 2019, according to the latest update of the World Fab Forecast from SEMI. See Figure 1.
Fifteen new fab projects with a total investment of US$38 billion will have started construction by the end of 2019 with 18 more fab projects forecast to start construction in 2020. Of the 18, 10 fab projects with a total investment value of more than US$35 billion carry a high probability and the other eight, with a total investment value of more than US$14 billion, are weighted with a low probability of materializing.
Facilities that commence construction in 2019 will begin equipping as early as the first half of 2020, with some starting to ramp production as early as mid-2020. These new fab projects will add more than 740,000 wafers per month (in 200mm equivalents). Most of the additional capacity will be dedicated to foundries (37%) followed by memory (24%) and MPU (17%). Of the 15 new fab projects in 2019, about half are for 200mm wafer sizes. See Figure 2.
The fab projects to begin construction in 2020 are expected to produce more than 1.1 million wafers per month (in 200mm equivalents). Most of these fabs and lines will begin equipping in 2021. The high-probability fabs will increase capacity by 650,000 wafers per month (in 200mm equivalents) while the low-probability facilities may add another 500,000 wafers per month (in 200mm equivalents). The bulk of the capacity will be for foundry (35%) and memory (34%) across various wafer sizes.
Published by the Industry Research and Statistics Group at SEMI, the World Fab Forecast covers new, planned and existing fabs as well as fab spending for construction and equipping, capacity expansion, and technology nodes by quarter and by product type with more than 1,300 front-end fab listings. All told, 192 updates have been made to the report, including the addition of 64 new facilities and lines since its previous publication in June 2019. The World Fab Forecast also includes projections for fabs and lines starting construction beyond 2020.