TECHCET— the advisory firm providing materials market & supply chain information for the semiconductor industry — is forecasting a 5% increase in total wafer area shipments in 2024, with an additional jump of 7% in 2025. Through the 2023-2028 forecast period, total wafer shipments are forecasted to grow at a >4% CAGR as 300mm growth continues to outpace other diameters, resulting in total shipments approaching 16 billion square inches by 2028, as detailed in TECHCET’s Critical Materials Report™ on Silicon Wafers (https://techcet.com/product/silicon-wafers/).
In 2023, the slowing of overall semiconductor industry conditions, paired with existing high inventory levels, led silicon wafer shipments to decline by approximately -13%. This contraction was the first annual shipment drop since 2019. However, the 2023 revenue decline in the wafer market (excluding SOI) was not as pronounced, with pricing provisions under Long-term Agreements (LTA) persisting.
Wafer shipments are expected to increase gradually this year as the supply chain is still grappling with elevated inventory levels from 2023. TECHCET is forecasting improvement in the second half of the year, as wafer shipment resurgence will likely lag recovery of semiconductor device production by a quarter or two. However, as wafer inventory levels correct and fab wafer start production rises, supplier shipments will again increase. Furthermore, strong forecasted growth for memory in 2024 will also help to correct the wafer inventory situation.
Current industry conditions have slowed some growth of wafer production capacity worldwide. However, with LTAs in place and new ones being negotiated, wafer suppliers are expected to boost output capacity to address increasing customer demand going forward.
